Is an EV actually better value than petrol, once everything is counted?
Is an EV actually better value than petrol, once everything is counted?
The running-cost numbers in 02-model-tco-survey.md already show EVs cheaper to run day-to-day. But "cheaper to run" isn't the same as "better value" — EVs also cost more to buy new and depreciate faster (50-60% over 3 years vs. 30-40% for petrol, per 02). This piece puts purchase price, depreciation, and running costs together to answer the actual question: if I factor in everything, would a cheap petrol car beat an EV on value right now?
Running costs, EV vs. petrol (annual)
| EV | Petrol | |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel/charging | €2.50-2.80/100km home charging (~€325-365/yr at 13,000km) | SP95-E10 ~€1.85/L (spring 2026) × |
| Maintenance | €381-700/yr | €535-1,200/yr |
| Insurance | €784-818/yr (citadine entry-level closer to ~€600/yr regardless of powertrain) | €735-753/yr |
| Combined | ~€4,300/yr (entretien + assurance + recharge, per 02) | ~€5,250/yr (per 02) |
Running costs alone: EV saves roughly €950/year, mostly from the fuel/charging gap — home charging runs at less than a fifth the cost per km of petrol at spring-2026 pump prices. Insurance is the one line where EVs now cost more (the TSCA tax exemption that used to offset this ended in 2025), though that gap is narrower for cheap city cars (~€600/yr either way) and has been shrinking generally as insurers get more comfortable with EV claims data — it was +25-40% a few years ago, now +9-16%.
Two worked examples, purchase price included
Depreciation is the thing that could flip this, since EVs lose value faster. Working it through for a 3-year ownership horizon, comparing new prices, resale value, and 3 years of running costs — both without and with the bonus écologique (up to €5,700 for lower-income households) applied to the EV side:
Budget segment: Dacia Spring vs. Dacia Sandero (petrol)
| Spring (EV) | Spring w/ bonus | Sandero (petrol) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New price | €16,900 | €11,200 | €12,490 |
| 3yr resale (~55% EV budget, ~50% petrol citadine — both estimated) | €9,295 | €9,295 | €6,245 |
| Depreciation cost | €7,605 | €1,905 | €6,245 |
| 3yr running costs (~€4,300/yr EV, ~€5,250/yr petrol) | €12,900 | €12,900 | €15,750 |
| 3yr total | €20,505 | €14,805 | €21,995 |
Mainstream segment: Peugeot e-208 vs. Peugeot 208 (petrol)
| e-208 (EV) | e-208 w/ bonus | 208 (petrol) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New price | €21,950 | €16,250 | €17,950 |
| 3yr resale (~62% e-208, ~55% petrol 208, both sourced in 02) | €13,609 | €13,609 | €9,873 |
| Depreciation cost | €8,341 | €2,641 | €8,077 |
| 3yr running costs | €12,900 | €12,900 | €15,750 |
| 3yr total | €21,241 | €15,541 | €23,827 |
Verdict, held loosely: in both examples, the EV comes out ahead over 3 years even without any incentive — by a modest €1,490 (budget) to €2,586 (mainstream) — because the running-cost savings outweigh the faster depreciation. With the bonus écologique applied, the gap opens up substantially, €6,000-7,000 in the EV's favor. A cheap petrol car is not obviously better value on this analysis, even at the pure-budget end.
Where this could flip, and what would change it
- Battery health risk isn't priced in here. A resale estimate assumes an average car; a genuinely degraded battery (per the SOH warnings throughout this project) could push actual EV resale well below the ~55-62% used above, closing or reversing the gap. This is the single biggest wildcard.
- Low annual mileage weakens the EV case. The whole running-cost advantage comes from the fuel/charging gap, which scales with distance driven. At very low annual mileage (well under the ~13,000km French average used here), the running-cost savings shrink and the EV's depreciation disadvantage matters proportionally more — worth recomputing for the actual school-run/short-trip use case this project has in mind, which likely drives meaningfully fewer km/year than the national average.
- No incentive eligibility narrows things. The bonus écologique needs income under set thresholds (see 01-tax-incentives.md) — without it, the EV's advantage is real but much smaller (roughly €1,500-2,600 over 3 years in the examples above, not several thousand).
- Longer or shorter ownership horizons shift the math — EVs depreciate more in the first 3 years but the running-cost savings keep compounding every year after, so a longer hold likely favors EVs more, not less.
Caveats
This is a first-cut model, not a certified TCO calculator: fuel consumption (6L/100km), annual mileage (13,000km), and resale percentages are estimates from earlier research and general French averages, not model-specific figures for the Spring/Sandero/e-208/208 pairing directly. Running costs use the blended EV/petrol averages from 02, not figures specific to these exact models. Treat the direction of the answer (EV ahead, even before incentives, for anyone driving close to average French mileage) as reasonably solid; treat the exact euro figures as ballpark.
Sources: 02-model-tco-survey.md (running costs, resale %) · 01-tax-incentives.md (bonus écologique) · LegiPermis (assurance EV vs essence 2026) · supercarbu.fr (prix carburant 2026) · prix-carburant.eu (baromètre janvier 2026) · manouvellevoiture.com (Peugeot 208 essence prix) · euromotor.fr (Dacia Sandero prix 2026) · autovillage.fr (Dacia Sandero prix)